06/04/2025
05/29/2025
Chasing Fads When Investing
04/29/2025
Your Guide to a Scary Market
03/21/2025
You Don’t Understand Risk
11/14/2024
News & Insights
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When investing for the future, one of the most detrimental behaviors we can fall into is chasing fads. Gold, bitcoin, meme stocks, jpegs of apes, semiconductors, geographic plays, penny stocks, online options trading, the list goes on and on?
“In the long run, investing is not about markets at all. Investing is about enjoying the returns earned by businesses.” ~ John C. Bogle
The founder of Vanguard puts it so eloquently. If you are an investor, you allocate money towards companies adding value and reap the benefits of their growth and profits over decades. When we start looking at days or weeks, we end up on the verge of not investing at all, just speculating.
But sometimes we can start to feel, the S&P 500 just isn’t good enough? Sometimes a diversified basket of companies with strong earnings just doesn’t meet our expectations (likely unrealistic) for what investing should be.
We hear about something from a co-worker or see an Instagram post. Then we go off and find an article to support this newfound thought, and four reddit threads later, we are day trading the Iraqi denar at 4am and renting space to start a bitcoin mining operation.
Here’s the thing about fads, they come fast, they are intense and in our faces. We can’t ignore them because they are on Yahoo finance’s home page and all over Instagram. The talking heads on Fox won’t shut up about it. Our cousin calls us and asks us about it and our friends go out of their way to tell you that they own this faddish investment. We look around and wonder, “am I the only one missing out on this?” Let me go ahead and answer that, no, you are not.
Chasing fads is detrimental to our long term financial success. How do we know we are following a fad?
- The “investment” surges in value. The idea of investing has been around for hundreds of years and formal stock markets came to being in the late 1700s. Growth in these markets are measured by small incremental movements over time. Beware of chasing the triple digit surges as these are not sustainable or realistic.
- The decision to invest feels time sensitive. If you feel you need to move now, you are likely not making a rational investing decision, you have a fear of missing out (FOMO). If you get the buy it now or never feeling, you are being driven by emotion. Pause. If it is a small amount, take 72 hours to think about it. If the amount is larger, take weeks. Money that makes sense within a financial plan will make sense to invest today and a month from now.
- We seek confirmation bias to make you feel better about our choices. We buy bitcoin at the top and realize that it solves very few problems in our society, so we buy books and go to webinars and talk to crypto maxis that will get us jazzed up to keep our manufactured belief alive. I’m picking on crypto here, but substitute options trading, real estate, buying nail salons and car washes. Fads take all shapes and sizes and a good sign you are chasing a fad is that you start venturing down an endless rabbit hole of information to make yourself feel better about your decisions.
- The topic takes over media and social media. Media is driven by clicks, by what can draw us in. Nothing in our Facebook algorithm cares about rationality and truth. No influencer on TikTok has a concern for how we invest our money. It all is meant to drive content. If you watch Fox or MSNBC and think they care about providing you with truth, you are sorely mistaken. They are peddling facts that cause the biggest emotional response possible in order to get us to “stick around until after the break.” *cue the pharmaceutical commercials* If we become drawn to an investment opportunity because of media buzz, we should stop right there.
- Everyone else is doing it. First off, like I already wrote, no, everyone is not doing it. We can talk to two people at work or at a kid’s sporting event that are trading options at midnight and suddenly we ask ourselves, “Are we the only ones not trading options in our pajamas?” The reality of fads is that the few people who participate in the foolhardy endeavors are usually very loud about their participation. The small minority makes the vast majority feel small. You own a home, contribute to your 401(k), have an emergency fund, are saving for college, but you are not buying options on semiconductor stocks?!?! More people are rational when it comes to planning and investing than you realize, but those who are rational when it comes to investing usually possess the humility and restraint to not broadcast their financial lives at every given opportunity.
An investment portfolio should be very similar to paint drying. It is neither fun to talk about or to watch. When you venture outside of a sustainable diversified portfolio and start pushing into fads, you have to ask yourself, why?
Why do we need the possibility of an outsized return in our portfolios? (there’s an equal chance of loss by the way).
Have you done a poor job of managing your cash flow and now you feel behind?
Are you struggling with insecurity and jealousy because your sibling or neighbor has more than you?
Will more money solve the problems you find yourself in?
I would start with those questions rather than chasing that which you will likely never catch.
If you understand you are chasing a fad, but still need the rush, do it in a responsible manner. A good simple rule of thumb is less than 2% of what you have to invest for the future. Take that and bet on a semiconductor stock or Ethereum or your college roommate’s brewing company. In an ideal world, we could all work around this urge, but I understand for some the speculation can be recreational.
There are reasons we feel the need to go after speculative flash in the pan investments. When we are honest with ourselves, we can get to the real reason we think we need these investments. That honesty within a financial plan might take you somewhere. Masking that truth with chasing the next thing will leave us with an account full of fake internet money and a closet full of Beanie Babies.
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Written by Geoffrey Schaefer, CFP®
If you have been investing for over a week, you have experienced a large market sell off. A sell off is just investor speak for a sharp and sudden decline. What most people see is just a red number when they login to view their investment portfolios which causes angst and worry. We see drops of at least 5% at least once annually and drops of over 10% every other year on average. So, while these moves may be relatively common, that does not make them easy to stomach when they inevitably occur.
Here is a guide to getting through a scary market:
- It is ok to feel scared.
“Fear keeps us focused on the past or worried about the future. If we can acknowledge our fear, we can realize that right now we are okay. Right now, today, we are still alive, and our bodies are working marvelously. Our eyes can still see the beautiful sky. Our ears can still hear the voices of our loved ones.”– Thich Nhat Hanh a Vietnamese Monk and Activist
We are all human and loss affects us more dramatically than gain ever will. You do not need to act like you are not bothered by a 3% plus drop in a day. If you feel anxious and uncomfortable, acknowledge it! Naming a fear will helps us to then put it in perspective.
- If you find yourself turning to the news with your worry and fear, stop immediately.
“Media cannot tell the great truths. It is all headlines and no history…Media goes crazier and crazier and crazier trying to capture eyeballs, no thought… the American household is inundated with noise.” – Nick Murray
Your favorite outlet for news media, however well intended they may be, is not a resource in a time like this. Information and editorial panels will offer hundreds of facts and opinions while likely giving you little to no truth and context. Throw the newspaper away, turn off the cable news, turn off your phone notifications for a day or two. Good places to turn to are your friends and family- the here and now. Yes, the market and the economy are working out some kinks, but your kids still love you, your spouse still would love to go on a walk with you, your parents may appreciate a phone call. The more we can immerse ourselves in our values through this, the smaller the market problem becomes. Another great resource is your trusted advisor.
- If you have made a financial plan, your portfolio is built for this.
Market declines happen every year, and a correction of 20% or more should be expected every four years or so on average. If you are spending down your portfolio, you should have the safe money set aside to weather this. If you are building and accumulating, keep going. Make your monthly contributions, keep your 401(k) and brokerage contributions going, do not stop. You get to invest at lower valuations, meaning better potential for long term growth. Proper financial planning will lead you to a portfolio designed for these types of market conditions.
- Inaction could be a great action.
Gandalf wisely said, “A wizard is never late, Frodo Baggins. Nor is he early. He arrives precisely when he means to.” You can take this as a lighthearted quote, or a truth that the wise never rush to action. The wise will act when it is appropriate.
We’ll see the headlines “what to do with this market selloff” and we’ll even start thinking, “I have to do something!” False, we do not have to do anything. Too much activity can be very counterproductive in a choppy market. Whether you are thinking to should add more to the market or sell it all, pause and consider the overall plan. Do you have emergency funds? Do you have large upcoming expenses? Are you reacting or is this action in line with a disciplined long term financial plan? Maybe doing nothing is the best thing to do.
- If you need to talk through the current situation, hire a financial planner.
Sometimes talking through what we are feeling in reference to our portfolio and financial plan is all we need to put the noise of the news and our minds at ease. If you do not have a financial planner, but feel this is as good as time as any to find one, make a connection or ask a friend for a referral. A good financial planner will not sell you a product. A good financial planner will listen and advise in an honest and caring manner. A short list of planner requirements would be:
1) They are a CFP® professional,
2) They work at an independent firm,
3) they are fee only meaning they do not sell products for a commission, and
4) they come highly recommended by a friend, family member, or trusted colleague.
We all must know and understand, that we cannot begin to predict when market drops will occur and how long they will last. Our premonitions are limited to our hindsight. Our omniscience only extends to what we have experienced. It is for that reason that we must invest according to a plan. A plan that aligns our capital with our values and gives us a north pointing arrow when we can’t seem to see past our current circumstance.
Investor Peter Lynch said, “A stock market decline is as routine as a January blizzard in Colorado. If you’re prepared, it can’t hurt you.” Prepare and gain the confidence of looking beyond the circumstances of today. Perhaps everything will be alright.
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Written by Geoffrey Schaefer, CFP®
Often I hear from clients and potential clients,
“I’m worried the stock market will go down.”
“Don’t stocks have a lot of risks?”
“Can’t we lose all of our money in stocks?”
Most of this is gleaned from the news media which actually contains much information while holding little truth. News is sensational. It is filled with data points and polarizing facts, often without context. Truth is steady, truth can be repetitive, truth will not garner clocks and thus impossible to find in the news media.
When we listen to the news rather than truth, we get scared of what we hear and then project that fear onto every part of our life.
Let’s talk investments for a bit. You’ve heard from the news that the president is going to tariff this, or this company’s sales are dropping, or the economy is tanking… yada yada yada. There is always something for the news to broadcast here. So, we hear that and we say, wow, this is too risky! We have to do something! Right?!?
No.
Let’s define risk.
In the financial context it is the possibly of complete loss. You have a home and it burns down. You have a car and it is totaled. You have a stock and that company goes out of business. The loss is complete and irreparable.
In the case of a home or car, we all have insurance policies to help cover this risk. In the case of an investment, what do we do?
I’d like to now introduce another term, often thrown around negatively, but actually it is more likely to be seen in a positive context: volatility.
Volatility is the chance of sudden and unpredictable movement. Nick Murray defines volatility as the price movement, both up and down, along a long-term trend line.
When it comes to investing, we often mistake risk for volatility. You have a portfolio of diversified stocks worth $500,000. Over three months, the value drops to $400,000. You’ve lost $100,000, right? Wrong!!
You’ve only lost that value if you sold the investment after the drop in value (which by the way, that is exactly what human nature will lead you do and you shouldn’t.)
That drop was likely not a result of risk, rather than volatility. The same volatility that pushed it upward every month prior to that, but only noticed when it moved in the opposite (negative) direction.
Here is some negative volatility that the largest 500 stocks in the U.S. have experienced in my lifetime:
- The dotcom bubble of 2000. The market dropped nearly 40% over three years.
- The great financial crisis of 2008. The market dropped 37% in one year.
- Covid 19 in 2020. The market dropped over 30% in less than three months (but finished the year up 18%).
- The 2022 market. It doesn’t have a cool nickname, but the market dropped by over 18%.
All of that negative volatility. Seems like a terrible deal, right?
The S&P 500 measured at 326 in September of 1990. It now sits at over 13,224. A total return of over 3,640% which is over 11% per year.
$10,000 put into the stock market in 1990 would be worth $374,290 today. The real risk is not investing at all. The real risk is selling in a Covid-19 market or tech bubble moment rather than staying the course.
When we are not invested, we usually are not doing so because it is “too risky.” We’re doing so because we do not have a financial plan that acts as a roadmap and guidepost when the news gets louder than the truth- and it will.
Are there some examples of investment risks? Yes, here are a few:
- Having 100% of your investments in one company stock. This carries the possibility for massive and even complete loss.
- Following fads like the meme stock mania, cryptocurrencies, foreign currency exchange, aggressive options strategies. None of these are investments, they are speculation at best and deserve little to no room in your overall financial plan.
- Timing the market. By the time a drop occurs, it is too late to get out without incurring losses. Human nature leaves us paralyzed by fear so pulling the trigger on getting back in will be nearly impossible.
- We sell low and buy high. Something goes down and we get out and we put that money into the fund that is doing well. Humans are tragically prone to recency bias. Because something is true of the past 6 months does not indicate it has always been true, or will continue to be true in the future.
- Inflation. Not investing will absolutely subject you to the risk of inflation. In 30 years, your purchasing power will be cut in half and then some. Not investing leaves you subject to a certain and inevitable fate.
Studies show that average investors underperform the market by almost 6% because of the reasons above. Those are real risks that are costing us, as investors, money and peace of mind. Our behavior is sabotaging our portfolios.
Here are more common mistakes investors
How do we get peace of mind with our investments?
Make a financial plan! A financial plan aligns your values with your capital. It clearly defines your goals and will tell you what must be done to get there. As part of a financial plan, you will develop a diversified and sustainable investment portfolio that will ultimately fund your goals and keep you away from the risk of trend following, market timing and hasty decision making.
Invest based on that and then tune out the noise that distracts you. CNN does not care about you, nor does Fox. Your coworkers RobinHood account or a hunch from your uncle will not aid you in achieving your financial goals. Make a plan or find a planner who will help you make one and hold you accountable.
Understand that when investing, risk is different than volatility. Make a plan, identify the risk, and invest! I can’t tell you how many times I hear, “I wish I would have started sooner.”
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